WDIO31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE)       
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.8N 59.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 524 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A HAS CONSOLIDATED RAPIDLY DUE TO A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, PARTICULARLY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. EIR CONTINUES TO SHOW INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS 
(VORTICAL HOT TOWERS) AND STRONG CYCLONIC ROTATION WITHIN THE CORE, 
INDICATIVE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) ONSET. A 202347Z SSMIS 91 GHZ 
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON THE PGTW, KNES SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT ADT
ESTIMATE, CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 202100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 60, TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF YEMEN AND OMAN AND TRACKS
INLAND.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 200 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72. IF YOU EXCLUDE THE TWO NORTHERN OUTLIERS, NAVGEM AND AFUM, CROSS-
TRACK SPREAD DECREASES TO A TIGHTER 110 NM VALUE. AFTER TAU 72, 
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE 
INDICATES A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 
RI THROUGH TAU 48. SPECIFICALLY, THE 201800Z COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) 
ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITY CHART INDICATES PEAK PROBABILITIES OF 
90 TO 100 PERCENT FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY 
FORECAST AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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