WDIO31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE)       
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 9.8N 60.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 571 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW 
FUELING INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS (VORTICAL HOT TOWERS) AND STRONG 
CYCLONIC ROTATION WITHIN THE CORE, INDICATIVE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
(RI) ONSET. A 201417Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED, 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGERY. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 201800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 201800Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 42 KTS AT 201800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 60, TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFF THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE 
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF YEMEN AND OMAN AND TRACKS INLAND.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 90 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL POLEWARD RECURVE.
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RI THROUGH TAU 48. SPECIFICALLY, 
THE 201200Z COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITY 
CHART INDICATES PEAK PROBABILITIES OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT FROM TAU 18 TO 
TAU 54. ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED 
SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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