WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 
022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.8N 143.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 155 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 217 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND HAS RE-INTENSIFIED IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS, SPORTING A NEW SHARPLY-OUTLINED 13-NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN
THE EIR LOOP AND SPOT ON WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
120613Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155KTS IS ALSO
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR IMPROVEMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   RJTD: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   KNES: T7.5 - 155 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 148 KTS AT 120358Z
   CIMSS ADT: 149 KTS AT 120530Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 150 KTS AT 120500Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY BOLAVEN WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE STRONG
WESTERLIES THAT FUELED THE RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL BECOME MORE
INTENSE AND RAPIDLY INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SST WILL COOL GRADUALLY. THIS COMBINED EFFECT WILL
RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING AND BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BE
REDUCED TO 70KTS, POSSIBLY WEAKER. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, 15W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM
INTO A HURRICANE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MERE 214NM BY TAU 72, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH ETT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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