WDPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 
018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.2N 143.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 145 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 413 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 57 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) 15W (BOLAVEN) EXPOSING A 10NM WIDE STADIUM EYE,
SURROUNDED BY A SMOOTH, VERY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CANOPY SPANNING
OUTWARD 50NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EYE
TEMPERATURE CONTINUES TO CLIMB, NOW OBSERVED AT +22C, WHILE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING AROUND -78C.  CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING DATA REVEALS LIGHTNING HAS PERSISTED CONTINUOUSLY IN AND
AROUND THE SYSTEMS EYE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING (017). ANIMATED
HIMAWAIR-9 SATELLITE DERIVED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED, PROVIDING THE SYSTEM
ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. ALL SAID, THIS COMPACT
AND VERY WELL-ORGANIZED SUPER TYPHOON HAS MANAGED TO CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY EVEN FURTHER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED A 110600Z HIMAWARI-9 
VISIBLE 1KM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
LISTED BELOW. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED TO PARALLEL A 110413Z AMSR2 
PASSIVE MICROWAVE WIND SPEED PRODUCT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR2 PASSIVE MICROWAVE SCALAR WIND

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RJTD: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS SATCON: 132 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 140 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 135 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 146 KTS AT 110600Z
   CIMSS SATCON: 132 KTS AT 110600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY 
THROUGH TAU 24. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BE LEVERAGED FOR SLIGHT 
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.  STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THIS OCCURRING NEAR TAU 12 IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN. HOWEVER, THE 
BULK OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED PEAK 
INTENSITY AND WILL SUSTAIN THROUGH TAU 24 AS STY 15W ROUNDS THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM BEGINS 
TURNING TO AN EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36.  NEAR THIS 
INTERVAL, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY ONSET AND 
BECOME SIGNIFICANT (+30KTS) BY TAU 60. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR (LESS 
THAN 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY) ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL 
BEGIN WRAPPING AROUND AND INTO THE VORTEX NEAR TAU 42. BOTH FACTORS 
WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION AND SLOWLY DECAY STORM STRUCTURE THROUGH 
TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS THE 26C ISOTHERM AS IT CROSSES 35N AND 
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 84. RAPID TRANSITION 
TO TYPHOON STRENGTH, WARM SECLUSION TYPE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED 
AROUND TAU 102 TO THE SOUTH OF KISKA ISLAND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND FAIR AGREEMENT BY TAU 120.  AT TAU
72, THE FURTHEST TRACK SEPARATION OF JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBER IS
BETWEEN THE JGSM AND MOGREPS SOLUTIONS, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
OF 150NM. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 398NM IS GREATEST BETWEEN GFS AND 
GALWEM SOLUTIONS.  BY TAU 120, BOTH SPREADS AMONG JTWC CONSENSUS 
MEMBERS INCREASE; GALWEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CROSS TRACK-
SPREAD OF 331NM AND AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 417NM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
NEAR UNIFORMLY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS LIKELY PEAKED AND 
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD AFTER A BRIEF SUSTAINMENT PERIOD THROUGH 
TAU 24.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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