WDPN32 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.1N 144.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 140 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 211 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 55 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (BOLAVEN) HAS UNDERGONE A REMARKABLE PERIOD OF EXTREME AND EXPLOSIVE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), WITH INTENSITY INCREASING FROM 80 KNOTS TO 140 KNOTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 15NM WIDE STADIUM EYE, SURROUNDED BY A SMOOTH, SYMMETRICAL CDO APPROXIMATELY 50NM WIDE. THE EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AN IMPRESSIVE +21C WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING AROUND -80C. GLOBAL REAL-TIME LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS THAT A STRONG INNER-CORE LIGHTNING BURST KICKED OFF AROUND 2100Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH ANALYSIS TIME. A 102043Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED A TIGHT INNER CORE, PINHOLE EYE AND STATIONARY BANDING COMPLEX (SBC) DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 15NM WIDE EYE FEATURE AND THE LAST RADAR FIX PRIOR TO THE EYE MOVING OUT OF RADAR RANGE FROM GUAM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, SET HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND WELL ABOVE ALL THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND HAVE CONSISTENTLY LAGGED BEHIND THE ACTUAL INTENSITY. OF NOTE, THE RAW ADT IS UP TO T7.4, AND THE 0100Z DPRINT IS 134 KNOTS, BOTH OF WHICH ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE OPTIMAL, WITH LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. AND YET, CONDITIONS ARE SET TO IMPROVE EVEN MORE, AS THE FIRST HINTS OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ARE STARTING TO APPEAR IN THE CIMSS HIGH RESOLUTION STORM-CENTERED ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTOR (AMV) PRODUCT. HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS, THIS STORM IS ABOUT TO BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 128 KTS AT 102330Z CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 102330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER UNDERGOING AN IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF EXTREME RI (ERI), STY 15W IS NOT DONE YET. OUTFLOW HAS SO FAR BEEN CONSTRAINED TO A MESOSCALE RADIAL PATTERN, WHICH MAKES THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AS MUCH AS IT HAS ALL THE MORE IMPRESSIVE. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM ESTABLISHES A CHANNEL INTO THE DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, UP TO AT LEAST 150 KNOTS, WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER REACHING THE PEAK, THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC) WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE CIMSS M-PERC NOW SHOW A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EWRC OCCURRING BUT PROVIDES NO INFORMATION ON THE TIMING. THE HAFS-A INNER-NEST MODEL HOWEVER, EXPLICITLY SHOWS SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION (SEF) STARTING AROUND TAU 18, WITH A SOLID INNER AND SECONDARY EYEWALL PRESENT BY TAU 30, AND COMPLETION OF EWRC AROUND TAU 54. THIS PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO 150 KNOTS BY TAU 12, THEN WEAKENING TO 125 KNOTS BY 36 AND THEN STEADY INTENSITY TO TAU 48. IF THE EWRC FINISHES UP FASTER, THE SYSTEM COULD RECOVER A BIT MORE, BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION QUICKLY CLOSES AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO THE ONSET OF HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BY TAU 60, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. FOR A SHORT TIME, THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL HOLD BACK THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE SHEAR, BUT BY TAU 72, THE SHEAR WILL BECOME TOO STRONG AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. THE SYSTEM PASSES THE 26C ISOTHERM AS IT CROSSES 35N AND WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 90. RAPID TRANSITION TO TYPHOON STRENGTH, WARM SECLUSION TYPE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 108 TO THE SOUTH OF KISKA ISLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ALL MODEL TRACKERS CONFINED TO A 150NM BOX AT TAU 72. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO ABOUT 360NM BY TAU 120, WHILE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 460NM. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 96, THEN SHIFTS SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GFS TRACK BY TAU 120, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE TO TAU 72, AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO TAU 12O. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS INCLUDING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK BETWEEN 150-160 KNOTS BY TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24. THE COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND THE HAFS-A BOTH SHOW A SINE-WAVE TYPE INTENSITY TREND, WHICH REFLECTS THE EWRC AND SUBSEQUENT RECOVERY. THE COAMPS-TC IN PARTICULAR SHOWS ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF REINTENSIFICATION AFTER EWRC. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS THE COAMPS-TC UNTIL TAU 48, THEN SHIFTS LOWER AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING, DURATION OF THE EWRC AND THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING THAT OCCURS IN RESPONSE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN