WDPN31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.0N 126.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A ROBUST TYPHOON STRENGTH CIRCULATION WITH AN IMPROVED 15NM EYE. VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS CREATING AN SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE TO THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE SYSTEM. A 021000Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY WRAPPING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIPHERAL CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, DOWN SHEAR OF THE SYSTEM. A STUNNING 020937Z RCM-3 SAR PASS REVEALED A MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD THAT UNSURPRISINGLY FAVORS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND INDICATED A VMAX OF 105KTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, SSMIS AND SAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON SAR DATA THOUGH DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN SLIGHTLY AGGRESSIVE AT 115-129KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 021130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) IS LIKELY AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. AS EVIDENCED BY THE ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE IN MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, 14W IS EXPERIENCING INCREASED MID-UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE GENERALLY NEGATED BY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SSTS WHICH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY. BY TAU 24 HOWEVER, THE PARTY WILL BE OVER AS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS LOST. WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AS THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS WESTWARD, 14W WILL BE FORCED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL PAST TAU 48, THE MOUNTAINOUS EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN WILL SHARPLY WEAKEN 14W TO 75KTS BY TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED TRACK, 14W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRANSIT THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS ADDITIONAL COOL DRY AIR STEAMS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MAINLAND CHINA. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 72, MEMBER GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN 117NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND HAFS, RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING STAGNATION OR WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH ALL MEMBERS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COAMPS-TC AND HAFS DO NOT INDICATE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AND INSTEAD EACH TRANSIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA THROUGH TAU 120. FOR THIS REASON, THESE MEMBERS INDICATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEYOND TAU 48. DESPITE THESE FEW TROUBLE MAKERS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN