WDPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.2N 119.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 147 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LLCC WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING
AROUND THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. A 032221Z SSMIS 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE STRUGGLING
TO MAINTAIN COHESION WHILE OVER TAIWAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, SSMIS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS BASED ON A BULK OF BOTH DVORAK
AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING A RANGE OF 50-77KTS.
BOTH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS RANGE AND THE FACT THAT JTWC IS TOWARDS
THE UPPER ENVELOPE ARE THE REASONS FOR THE INTENSITY BEING ASSESSED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 032330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 10W (HAIKUI) IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY REGAIN
WESTWARD TRACK MOTION OVER THE COMING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO REGAIN CONVECTIVE COVER AFTER HAVING BEEN DECAPITATED AS IT
TRANSITED OVER TAIWAN. THROUGH TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO AROUND 55KTS, AS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION TRACKS
OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO REDUCED OUTFLOW ALOFT.
JUST AFTER TAU 24, 10W WILL MAKE ITS SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FUJIAN PROVINCE, CHINA. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD, CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 72
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH CROSS TRACK SPREADING INCREASES. GFS
AND UK-MET ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SHARP EQUATORWARD TRACK SHIFT NEAR
TAU 24, UNTIL DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 120 IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. NVGM
AND COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION), TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO CHINA
AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN THE BULK OF THE
REMAINING MEMBERS. FOR THESE REASONS, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
THERE AFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A SHARP WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48,
AFTER WHICH A MORE GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH DISSIPATION. FOR THIS
REASON, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN