WDPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.6N 122.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CLOUD
FILLED 10NM EYE WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN
ALL QUADRANTS. A 022237Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED EYE WALL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. A 022204Z SOIL MOISTURE ACTIVE PASSIVE (SMAP) PASS
INDICATES A STRONG BAND OF 100-105KT (CONVERTED 1-MIN AVERAGE)
WINDS IS WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI
AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SMAP DATA FURTHER SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE 94-115KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 022330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 10W (HAIKUI) IS LIKELY AT OR VERY NEAR ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 06.
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, WHICH MAY FUEL VERY LIMITED
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 06,
10W WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND
THE SYSTEM MAY BRIEFLY BE DEFLECTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE REGAINING
ITS ANTICIPATED WESTERLY TRACK, WEAKENING TO AROUND 75KTS BY TAU
24. AFTER QUICKLY TRANSITING THE TAIWAN STRAIT, 10W WILL MAKE ITS
SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR TAU
48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACK INLAND IT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO 35KTS BY
TAU 72 AND BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE FULLY DISSIPATED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL
MEMBERS TAKING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, INTO THE
TAIWAN STRAIT. AFTER TAU 36, GFS AND HAFS-A TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY
EQUATORWARD, WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE GENERAL
WESTWARD MARCH THROUGH DISSIPATION. FOR THESE REASONS, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF
THE MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST TREND.
FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THERE AFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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