WDPN33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.5N 123.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 182 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PERFECTLY SYMMETRIC TYPHOON STRENGTH CIRCULATION THAT HAS NEARLY
DEVELOPED AN EYE ONCE AGAIN. A RECENT 021809Z ATMS 165GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A MICROWAVE EYE WITH A ROBUST EYE WALL AND
SYMMETRIC BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND ATMS IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING A RANGE FROM
77-90KTS, WHILE THE REMAINING AUTOMATED GUIDANCE IS LOWER. IT IS
WELL DOCUMENTED THAT UNTIL THE SWITCH TO THE EYE METHOD, THIS
INTENSITY REGION IS A TRICKY ZONE FOR THE DVORAK METHOD, THUS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 61 KTS AT 021315Z
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 021730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: IF LANDFALL WAS NOT 12 HOURS AWAY, TY 10W
(HAIKUI) WOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE OFF IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AS
IT TRACKS WESTWARD. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO BOLSTER THE SYSTEMS
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS LANDFALL WITH
SOUTHERN TAIWAN IS FORECASTED TO TAKE PLACE JUST AFTER TAU 12, 10W
HAS A VERY NARROW WINDOW TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND,
WHICH WILL LIKELY PEAK THE SYSTEM NEAR 100KTS. AFTER INTERACTING
WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS EASTERN COAST OF TAIWAN, 10W MAY BRIEFLY BE
DEFLECTED TO THE SOUTH BEFORE REGAINING ITS ANTICIPATED WESTERLY
TRACK. AFTER QUICKLY TRANSITING THE TAIWAN STRAIT, 10W WILL MAKE
ITS SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA NEAR
TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACK INLAND IT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO 30KTS
BY TAU 72 AND BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE FULLY DISSIPATED.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL
MEMBERS TAKING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, INTO THE
TAIWAN STRAIT. AFTER TAU 36, GFS, HAFS-A, AND COAMPS (GFS) TURN THE
SYSTEM SHARPLY EQUATORWARD, WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE CONTINUES
THE GENERAL WESTWARD MARCH THROUGH DISSIPATION. FOR THESE REASONS,
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST TREND. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED INITIALLY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THERE AFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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