WDPN33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 126.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 281 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY
WRAPPING TYPHOON STRENGTH CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
SYMMETRY AND THE EARLY SIGNS OF AN EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO FORM. A
012114Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION WITH THE ENTIRE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LLCC EXPOSED. A 012128Z SOIL MOISTURE ACTIVE PASSIVE (SMAP) SCALAR
WIND PRODUCT REVEALS A NEARLY SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF 60-65KT WINDS
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT THAT TIME LOCALIZED TO THE EASTERN
QUADRANT WITHIN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
THAT SMAPS MICROWAVE RADIOMETER HAS A RESOLUTION NEAR 40KM VIS A
SUPERIOR PRODUCT LIKE SAR, WHICH IS ON THE ORDER OF 20 METERS. FOR
SYSTEMS THAT ARE SMALL TO MEDIUM IN SIZE, LIKE 10W, THIS CAN HAVE A
PROFOUND IMPACT ON THE VMAX. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REPORTING 77-90KTS AND CIMSS ADT
AND AIDT REPORTING NEAR 85KTS AS WELL.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 012330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 10W (HAIKUI) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, DUE TO THE STR CENTER FAR TO
THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS 10W MOVES WESTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP, ALONG WITH REDUCED
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH. IF THE SYSTEM CAN CONTINUE TO
RECONSOLIDATE ITS CONVECTION, AS VWS TEMPORARILY DECREASES,
MODERATE OUTFLOW COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS COULD FUEL THE SYSTEM TO
AN ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY OF 105KTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER BY TAU
24. JUST BEFORE TAU 36, 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN
AND BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A TRANSIT ACROSS THE TAIWAN
STRAIT. NEAR TAU 84, 10W WILL MAKE ITS SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE
CHINESE EASTERN SEABOARD AND PROCEED INLAND WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE THROUGH TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH MOST
MEMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 12,
ALONG TRACK AND CROSS TRACK SPREADING INCREASES, RESULTING IN A
100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BY THE TIME OF INITIAL LANDFALL OVER
TAIWAN AND 200NM SPREAD BY TAU 120. FOR THESE REASONS, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS
INDICATING INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24, AFTER WHICH A DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A
BOTH SHOW A MORE DELAYED SPIKE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THEIR MUCH
SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS RESULTING IN MORE TIME OVER OPEN WATERS. BASED
ON THE INITIAL VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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