WDPN33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.1N 127.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEDIUM-SIZED
SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS OBSCURED A DEVELOPING EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON WARM
CENTRAL PIXELS AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
010842Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY
WARM SST AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
STRONG VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 011130Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 78 KTS AT 011100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 80 KTS AT 011130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY HAIKUI WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TRACKING
OVER SOUTHERN TAIWAN AROUND TAU 48, CROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THEN
MAKE A SECONDARY LANDFALL OVER THE CHINESE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND
TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND LATER ON, LAND INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY THEN
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAIN PACK OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
BROAD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNEVEN SPREAD TO 296NM BY TAU 72 THEN
WIDELY AND ERRATICALLY TO 500+NM BY TAU 120. ERRATIC OUTLIERS
INCLUDE NAVGEM THAT TRACKS THE VORTEX INTO THE LUZON STRAIT THEN
ABRUPTLY DRIVES THE VORTEX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAPAN. GFS IS ALSO
ON THE LEFT MARGIN AND REVERSES THE VORTEX EASTWARD
JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN BEFORE DRIVING IT NORTHEASTWARD. GIVEN THE
VARYING
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BEST TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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