WDPN33 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.1N 128.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 267 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DIMPLE FEATURE,
INDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.  ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 010220Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY HAIKUI WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TRACKING
OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN AFTER TAU 48 THEN MAKE A SECONDARY LANDFALL
OVER THE CHINESE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS
BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LATER ON, LAND INTERACTION
WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY TAU
120 AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAIN PACK OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
BROAD AGREEMENT WITH AN UNEVEN SPREAD TO 160NM BY TAU 72 THEN
WIDELY AND ERRATICALLY TO 300+NM BY TAU 120. ERRATIC OUTLIERS
INCLUDE GFS ON THE LEFT MARGIN THAT REVERSES THE VORTEX EASTWARD
JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN, AND NAVGEM THAT ABRUPTLY DRIVES THE VORTEX
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAPAN JUST AFTER TAU 12. GIVEN THE VARYING
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BEST TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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