WDPN33 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 129.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 287 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 312127Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS 
ADT, AIDT ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 312340Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 78 KTS AT 312340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) HAIKUI WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
TY 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48 THEN IT WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THE 
SYSTEM APPROACHES TAIWAN. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY 
AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN WITH FURTHER WEAKENING 
AS IT TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
WITH A 115 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON 09W, 
AND NAVGEM, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 
TAU 120. THUS, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS 
MEDIUM. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ALSO MEDIUM WITH 
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. 
THE 311200Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 30 TO 40 PERCENT 
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
ADDITIONALLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE HAS TRIGGERED 
SUGGESTING RI IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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