WDPN33 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 130.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 298 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). HOWEVER, A 311932Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS AN OBLONG EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN ELONGATED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE AND A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
SSMIS IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVING
RADIAL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES.  

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED
TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 311730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 70 KTS AT 312110Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 72 KTS AT 312000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) HAIKUI WILL CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 
48 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48 THEN IT WILL WEAKEN 
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES TAIWAN. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN 
WITH FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
WITH A 150 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON 09W, 
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120. 
THUS, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS MEDIUM. THE 
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ALSO MEDIUM WITH SIGNIFICANT 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS.          

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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