WDPN33 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.7N 131.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 349 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT HAS DEEPENED AND BECAME MORE COMPACT WITH AN 
ON AND OFF DIMPLE FEATURE, INDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM THE DIMPLE 
FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION IN THE 310855Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED 
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW 
VWS, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 311140Z
   CIMSS DPRINT: 70 KTS AT 311100Z


FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS HAIKUI WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TRACKING
OVER TAIPEI, TAIWAN AROUND 72 THEN MAKE A SECONDARY LANDFALL OVER
THE CHINESE EASTERN SEABOARD NEAR FUZHOU AROUND TAU 96. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 100KTS BY TAU 36 AS IT APPROACHES THE JAPANESE ISLAND OF
ISHIGAKIJIMA. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LATER ON, LAND
INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
30KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN
UNEVEN SPREAD TO 387NM BY TAU 72 THEN WIDELY AND ERRATICALLY TO
700+NM BY TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. A NOTABLE
LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER IS GFS. AND ON THE EXTREME RIGHT IS AEMN THAT
SHOOTS THE VORTEX 90 DEGREES FROM THE PACK TOWARD JAPAN AFTER TAU
36.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN