WDPN33 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.2N 132.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 393 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT HAS DEEPENED ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION AS
EVIDENCED BY OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM A NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 300420Z AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS
IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NED
TO THE NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 62 KTS AT 310347Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 310540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS HAIKUI WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTHEAST, BRUSHING THE
NORTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN AROUND TAU 66 THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE
CHINESE EASTERN SEABOARD NEAR FUZHOU AROUND TAU 84. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 95KTS
BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS OVER THE JAPANESE ISLAND OF ISHIGAKIJIMA.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LATER ON, LAND INTERACTION WILL
GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY TAU 120
WELL INLAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL SPREAD TO 178NM BY TAU 72 THEN WIDELY AND ERRATICALLY TO
545NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. TWO NOTABLE
LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIERS ARE JGSM AND GFS THAT DEVIATE FROM THE MAIN
PACK BY 132NM AFTER TAU 72. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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