WDPN33 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (HAIKUI)       
WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.2N 132.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS FLARING OVER THE LLCC.
A 310147Z GMI 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, DEFINED LLCC, 
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED 
ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, EXCLUDING THE RJTD
ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATE AND A 310000Z DPRINT ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 72 KTS AT 302308Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 302340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
TAU 72. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT 
WEAKENING BY TAU 72 AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, 
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND WILL TRACK OVERLAND AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
ERRATIC RUN TO RUN, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
120 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A LARGE SPREAD THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES 
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH GUIDANCE RANGING 
FROM 75 TO 110 KNOTS AT TAU 48.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN