WDPN32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 09W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 
029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.9N 118.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 270 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 44 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SUPER
TYPHOON (STY) SAOLA (09W) HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITIES OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS, AS THE VERY TIGHT SYMMETRY OBSERVED 12 HOURS
PRIOR HAS SINCE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED, SHOWING LARGE CONVECTIVE SPIRAL
BANDING BEGINNING TO PROTRUDE AWAY FROM THE SYSTEMS LLCC.
ADDITIONALLY, THE VERY SYMMETRIC EYE OF 16NM PERSISTS, YET HAS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN SIZE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 301800Z
HM9 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF T7.0 AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF: CIMSS ADT 
134KT, CIMSS AIDT 130KTS, AND CIMSS DPRINT 124KTS AT 302050Z.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RJTD: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   RCTP: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   KNES: T7.0 - 140 KTS 
   CIMSS ADT: 134 KTS AT 301730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY SOALA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, SKIRTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN CHINA. A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FROM TAU
12 FORWARD, ALONG WITH THE FRONT RIGHT QUADRANT EXPERIENCE THE
EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
RATHER QUICKLY AND DROP TO AN INTENSITY OF NEAR 45 KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALIGNS WELL THROUGH TAU
72, SHOWING SOLUTIONS NEARING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA WITH A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 122NM.  POST TAU 72, MOST MEMBERS OF THE JTWC
CONSENSUS TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH THROUGH TAU 96, AND THEN
CHECK-MARKING BACK ON A RECIPROCAL HEADING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, HOWEVER, CONTINUES ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK POST TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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