WDPN33 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.4N 136.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 423 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND PROXY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
PROMINENT OVERSHOOTING TOPS. BASED ON THE PROXY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
A 291645Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH HEIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOSTLY OBSCURED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE
IMAGERY DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EVALUATION OF THE AGENCY DVORAK. CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGING T3.5 AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
AVERAGING ROUGHLY 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH
WARM SSTS AND GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY THE
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 291420Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS HAIKUI WILL CONTINUE ITS GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 120 AND LIKELY EXPERIENCE PEAK 
INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU T2 TO 84. THE STRUCTURAL TILT WITH HEIGHT, 
INFLUENCED BY THE MODERATE VWS AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL 
LIKELY INHIBIT RAPID GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 12.  SHOULD THE 
SYSTEM BETTER ALIGN VERTICALLY AND SHEAR BE REDUCED, THE HIGH SSTS IN 
THE ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY FEED THE SYSTEMS 
DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 72 
CONTRIBUTE LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT TS HAIKUI WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
120.  INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MODEL CONSENSUS DEVIATE
GREATLY IN TRACK SPEED POST TAU 72, YIELDING AN ALONG TRACK ERROR
OF 580 NM. OF PARTICULAR NOTE, THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN IS IN
TOTAL DISAGREEMENT WITH ALL OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS, FIRST
COMING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, AND THEN TAKING
TS 10W ON A RECIPROCAL COURSE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. VARIOUS MEMBERS 
OF THE COAMPS ENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW THIS AS WELL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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