WDPN33 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.0N 138.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 391 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL STORM WITH FLARING CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND PLACED WITHIN A GROUPING OF AGENCY POSITION FIXES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ALONG WITH A 290052Z ASCAT WHICH
DEPICTS 40-45 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) VALUES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 282350Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. TS 10W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
AFTER TAU 12, 10W IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AT A STEEPER RATE WITH
RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED NEAR TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
OKINAWA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH A 147 NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO
370 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) PHASE TO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS RI GUIDANCE IS TRIGGERED. THEREFORE, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48. THEN FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE END THE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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