WDPN33 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 139.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 386 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED PROXY VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
TROPICAL STORM WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LLCC. RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SPANS THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A LLCC. OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, THE OFFSET LLCC MOVED WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, REDUCING THE VERTICAL TILT OF THE SYSTEM AND 
BETTER ALIGNING THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON 281800Z HIMAWARI-9 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE 
IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS ADT, AIDT, 
AND DPRINT PRODUCTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 281740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS HAIKUI WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND HIGH SSTS
(29-30) WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION OF TS HAIKUI, REACHING AN
INTENSITY OF 95KTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES JUST SOUTHWEST OF
OKINAWA BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD (TAU 120).  THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96 IS
287 NM, SPANNING FROM SOUTHERN OKINAWA TO ISHIGAKI ISLAND. 
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, HENCE THE ELEVATION OF INTENSITY
FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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