WDPN33 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (HAIKUI) WARNING 
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 141.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 325 NM NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH ITS MAIN CONVECTION DISPLACED WESTWARD
AND MOSTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE 280831Z SMAP PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, LOW VWS, AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD HAIKUI WILL TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE 
NORTHEAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING 75KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES JUST 
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL SPREAD TO 197NM AT TAU 72 THEN TO 430 NM AT TAU 120. BEYOND
TAU 72, A STRAND OF MODELS INCLUDING NVGM AND GFS DEVIATE FROM THE
MAIN PACK WESTWARD THEN REJOIN THE MAIN PACK BY TAU 120, A
POSSIBLE INDICATION OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TY 09W, FORECAST TO
BE WITHIN 600NM AT THAT SEGMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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