WDPN31 PGTW 270300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 31.5N 147.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 456 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 27 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED WATER VAPOR RGB IMAGERY REVEALS MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED, EXPANDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262048Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE 270110Z AIDT ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE WELL- ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE 270100Z DPRINT ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER AT 52 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 262128Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 262340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, REMAINING WELL EAST OF HONSHU. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED QUICKLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE THROUGH TAU 24. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, PERHAPS SOONER. BY TAU 36, TS 08W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEAR TAU 48, TS 08W WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE, STORM-FORCE BAROCLINIC LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 68 KNOTS AT TAU 36 WHILE THE HAFS-A SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 62 KNOTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN