WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (DAMREY)        
WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 31.5N 147.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 456 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 27 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR RGB IMAGERY REVEALS MOIST LOW-MID LEVELS WITH
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED, EXPANDING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 262048Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MSI AND SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE
270110Z AIDT ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE WELL-
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE 270100Z DPRINT ESTIMATE IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER AT 52 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 262128Z
   CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 262340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
REMAINING WELL EAST OF HONSHU. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED QUICKLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE THROUGH TAU
24. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, PERHAPS SOONER. BY TAU 36, TS 08W WILL
ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEAR TAU 48, TS 08W
WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A
COLD-CORE, STORM-FORCE BAROCLINIC LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY. THE JTWC
INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 68 KNOTS AT
TAU 36 WHILE THE HAFS-A SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 62 KNOTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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