WDPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2N 123.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 194 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 09W HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING,
SKIRTING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON UNSCATHED. A 261000Z RCM-2
SAR IMAGE REVEALS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC WINDFIELD NUDGED UP AGAINST
THE CONCAVE COASTLINE OF NORTHEAST LUZON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 126 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 14NM EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TY 09W HAS REMAINED 
STRUCTURALLY INTACT AS INDICATED IN A 261751Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE WESTERN 
QUADRANT BUT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 
SYSTEM. THE 261200Z HAFS-A RUN INDICATES SOME UPWELLING COOLER WATER IN 
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BUT NO 
EVIDENCE OF DRY ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE AS SUGGESTED IN 
EARLIER RUNS.THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS 
SUPPORTED BY RECENT SAR DATA AS WELL AS THE DVORAK INTENSITY, SATCON, 
AND ADT ESTIMATES. ADDITIONALLY, A 261754Z CIMSS DMINT ESTIMATE OF 120 
KNOTS ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE WEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 118 KTS AT 261420Z
   CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 261730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: A SECONDARY PEAK (REINTENSIFICATION
PHASE) HAS BEEN RE-ADDED IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 72 TIMEFRAME.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: WITH NO EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING
COOLER WATER OR DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE OVERALL WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VWS,
WARM SST (30 C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, SOME WEAKENING DUE TO
UPWELLING COOLER WATER, PRIMARILY, IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN VERY SLOW. AFTER TAU 24, TY 09W WILL
STEADILY REINTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD REACHING A SECONDARY
PEAK OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, A STR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM ONTO A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN AND SOUTHEAST CHINA. INTERACTION
WITH LAND WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN, THERE 
IS MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE 261200Z 
EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE. THE 261200Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS THE SECONDARY 
REINTENSIFICATION PHASE AND SHOWS INCREASING RI PROBABILITIES OF 40 TO 
50 PERCENT IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 72 TIMEFRAME. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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