WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (DAMREY)        
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 29.3N 149.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 609 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, EXPANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE QUICKLY.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. A 261611Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND 
ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN TOO LOW, HOWEVER, A 261900Z DPRINT ESTIMATE 
OF 56 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. A 261609Z 
AMSR2 WINDSPEED IMAGE FROM REMOTE SENSING SYSTEMS SHOWS A BAND OF 50-55 
KNOTS (53-59 KNOTS CONVERTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH ISOLATED WINDS 
OF 60-65 KNOTS. OVERALL, THE WINDFIELD HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC 
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER PROVIDING EVIDENCE THAT FURTHER 
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 261730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
REMAINING WELL EAST OF HONSHU. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED 
QUICKLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE THROUGH TAU 36. THEREFORE, 
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS, PERHAPS SOONER. BY TAU 48, TS 08W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE 
AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEAR TAU 48, TS 08W WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE, STORM-FORCE 
BAROCLINIC LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY. COAMPS-TC AND 
THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) SHOW A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS 
FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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