WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (DAMREY)        
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.3N 154.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 993 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE,
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING 
SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND CORE CONVECTION. A 
252316Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE LINEAR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALIGNED NNW 
TO SSE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
THE MSI. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS MID-UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS PRODUCT INDICATE A ROBUST, JET-STRENGTH POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
ENHANCED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N 145E. THIS UNUSUALLY 
VIGOROUS POLEWARD CHANNEL IS PULLING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD, HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 50 KTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
PGTW AND KNES WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 252330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR NEAR TAU 48, REMAINING WELL
EAST OF HONSHU. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, TS 08W WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TS 08W WILL COMPLETE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE
BAROCLINIC LOW.   

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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