WDPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.0N 123.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 298 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
       PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON (TY) 09W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
FROM 45 KNOTS AT 241800Z TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT
251800Z. DESPITE THIS PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TY 09W HAS
STRUGGLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEAST LUZON
WITH THE EROSION OF CORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO UPWELLING COOLER WATER AND MID-LEVEL DRY
ENTRAINMENT AS SUGGESTED BY THE 251200Z HAFS-A RUN. A 251708Z AMSR2
COLOR COMPOSITE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL CORE WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND
A 250953Z RCM-2 SAR IMAGE SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 99 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE WEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 251520Z
   CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 251730Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: DYNAMIC OCEAN COOLING 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: DESPITE THE POSSIBLE UPWELLING COOLER WATER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE OVERALL WITH RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WARM SST (30 C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY, TEMPERED BY THE COOLER SST AND MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT ADVECTING OFF OF LUZON, WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TY 09W SHOULD
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT STALLS EAST OF LUZON. AFTER TAU 72, THE WESTERN 
STR WILL WEAKEN AND A STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH, WHICH 
WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE STEADILY ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO 
REINTENSIFY TO A SECONDARY PEAK OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 96. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN,
THERE IS MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE
251200Z EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE 250000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS THE
SECONDARY REINTENSIFICATION PHASE AND SHOWS INCREASING RI
PROBABILITIES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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