WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING 
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.1N 149.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 303 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. A 240844Z SSMIS 91GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION SIZED
CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 240741Z SOIL MOISTURE ACTIVE-PASSIVE (SMAP) IMAGE
CONFIRMS THE DIAGNOSIS OF 08W AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, WITH A
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) EXCEEDING 150NM AND A RADIUS OF THE
OUTERMOST ISOBAR (ROMCI) IN EXCESS OF 400NM. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON RECENT SMAP DATA INDICATING MOSTLY 25KTS WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 30KT WINDS IN THE EXTREME PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: BUILDING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 241130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 08W, HAVING RECENTLY EXECUTED AN ABOUT-FACE
IS NOW TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO BE TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD BY TAU 24, UNDER THE
GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFYING AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BEGINS TO IMPROVE. NEAR TAU
48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS A
STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM RIDES THIS RIDGE POLEWARD,
THE VERY LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION SIZED CIRCULATION WILL STRUGGLE
TO GAIN ANY NOTABLE INTENSITY. BY TAU 120, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
WELL EAST OF TOKYO JAPAN, THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 40KTS AS
IT NEARS THE AXIS OF THE STR.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
MEMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, RESULTING IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BEING PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A FEW MEMBERS UNREALISTICALLY ROCKETING THE SYSTEM UP ABOVE
TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 60, DESPITE ITS MASSIVE SIZE AND THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY TREND. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFOR PLACED
BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LARGE DEVIATION FROM SOME THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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