WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING 
NR 061//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.5N 167.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1339 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH NO NEW RADAR
IMAGERY SINCE 0700Z, THANKFULLY A 151015Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY
PARTIAL PASS CAME THROUGH. THE PARTIAL SCAT PASS REVEALED AN
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD COMPRISED MOSTLY OF 20 KT WINDS WITH A SMALL
REGION OF 25 KTS AND A SINGLE 30 KT WIND BARB. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC EVIDENT IN EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETERY PASS
CONFIRMING AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS AIDT VALUES
OF 30KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 151140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: INFLUENCE OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05E (DORA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY DETERRENT TO
ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. AS 05E TRACKS POLEWARD, THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TUTT
COMBINED WITH MODERATE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
EAT AWAY AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS THRIVING IN THE
ENHANCED OUTFLOW AND LOWER SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE SAME TUTT CELL.
THIS IS CREATING A UNIQUE SITUATION WHEREIN THE TWO SIDES OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE HOLDING EACH OTHER IN NEAR STEADY STATE AS THE
WHOLE CIRCULATION PROPAGATES POLEWARD. BY TAU 36, THE CIRCULATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUCCUMB TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT
FOLLOWING THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW PATTERN AND NOT THE SURFACE-MID
LAYER FLOW. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 12 WITH A FEW MEMBERS, (COAMPS-TC AND
DECAY-SHIPS) UNREALISTICALLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM WITH COAMPS-TC
TAKING IT BACK UP TO 50KTS BY TAU 60. SUFFICE TO SAY, THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ABOVE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY, ALBEIT WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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