WDPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING 
NR 060//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.4N 167.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1322 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 150541Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED, POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MSI AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE T2.0 WHICH MATCHES CIMSS ADT AND AIDT
ESTIMATES OF 30-34KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 150600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05E (DORA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY DETERRENT TO
ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. AS 05E TRACKS POLEWARD, THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TUTT
COMBINED WITH MODERATE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
EAT AWAY AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS THRIVING IN THE
ENHANCED OUTFLOW AND LOWER SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE SAME TUTT CELL.
THIS IS CREATING A UNIQUE SITUATION WHEREIN THE TWO SIDES OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE HOLDING EACH OTHER IN NEAR STEADY STATE AS THE
WHOLE CIRCULATION PROPAGATES POLEWARD. BY TAU 36, THE CIRCULATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SUCCUMB TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT, GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TAU
72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
MEMBERS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF MODEL OUTPUT
FOLLOWING THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW PATTERN AND NOT THE SURFACE-MID
LAYER FLOW. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS QUICKLY AND UNREALISTICALLY
INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM WITH COAMPS-TC TAKING IT NEARLY BACK TO
TYPHOON STRENGTH. SUFFICE TO SAY, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ABOVE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, ALBEIT
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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