WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DORA) WARNING 
NR 059//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.5N 167.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 100 NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05E (DORA) HAS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
COMPLETELY CHANGED IN CHARACTER. OVERNIGHT, UP TO SIX HOURS AGO,
THE SYSTEM DISPLAYED DEEP, WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TUCKED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
MASS. IN THE HOURS SINCE 1800Z, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE LLCC,
SUCH AS IT IS, HAS PEAKED OUT TO THE WEST AND IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED.
A RECENT 142304Z ASCAT-B PASS, WHILE NOT CAPTURING THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, WHERE THE HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY LURK, DID SHOW THAT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WIND FIELD IS ANEMIC, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 TO T2.5, MOSTLY USING THE
SHEAR TECHNIQUE, ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA AND PROVIDE MODERATE LEVELS OF CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTALLY, TD 05E IS A TALE OF TWO SYSTEMS. THE
LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED TO THE STRONG
TUTT-CELL LOCATED NEAR 26N 166E, WHICH HAS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND WESTERLY SHEAR, BASICALLY
SMOTHERED TD 05E. THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL UNDER THE DIVERGENT PORTION OF THE TUTT-CELL RELATED FLOW
ALOFT ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR VISIBLE IMAGERY, AND THUS CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT FLARING BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. AFTER BEGIN
DECAPITATED AND SMOTHERED, THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX HAS COME
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW,
CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A GENERALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS
ALONG THE 30N LATITUDE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 142330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY CHANGE, TRUNCATING THE FORECAST TO 72 HOURS AND CHANGING
THE END-PHASE FROM EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) TO DISSIPATION. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENING AND
SHALLOWED OUT, IT IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH
IS GENERALLY GOING TO PUSH IT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH
THE WEAK GRADIENT MEANS THAT TRACK SPEEDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW. AFTER
TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SPEED AND TRACK NORTHEAST AS IT GETS
PICKED UP BY THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE, THE MOVEMENT OF THE TUTT-CELL TO THE EAST AND TD 05E
MOVEMENT TO THE WEST HAS RESULTED IN THE LLCC MOVING UNDER THE
DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT-CELL. AS LONG AS THESE TWO FEATURES
REMAIN IN THE SAME GENERAL SPATIAL RELATIONSHIP, TD 05E WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SURVIVAL. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
EXACTLY THIS OUTCOME, AND WITH THAT, THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY TRUNCATED. SHORT-LIVED FLARE-UPS OF CONVECTION REMAIN
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND
MOST LIKELY DURING DIURNAL MAXIMUM. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE
OF THE TUTT WILL MEAN THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DISORGANIZED
AND THE LLCC WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NAKED AND AFRAID, UNDER THE
SMOTHERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE LLCC WILL TAKE
TIME TO SPIN DOWN, AND THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM 
WEAKENS MORE QUICKLY, AND DISSIPATES AS EARLY AS TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DEVIATES FROM THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH IS STILL STEERING THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE
DEEP-LAYER STEERING PATTERN. BUT THIS OBVIOUSLY IS NOT THE CASE,
AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF THE 850MB
MEAN WIND FLOW. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS HARD TO QUANTIFY, BUT DUE 
TO
THE RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE,
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS LOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
SIMILARLY CHALLENGED, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS EXCEPT FOR HAFS-A
REMAINING EXCITED ABOUT THE SYSTEM, INTENSIFYING IT EVEN MORE THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. COAMPS-TC TAKES IT UP TO DIZZYING
HEIGHTS OF NEAR 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST DEVIATES FROM
THE GUIDANCE AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. IN A SIMILAR
MANNER TO THE TRACK FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IS LOW. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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