WDPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 
057//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.8N 168.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 110 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (GOES H-8
PROXY VIS) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH ITS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION SEVERELY 
SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD, INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 141032Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE INCREASE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
GREATLY OFFSET BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 141350Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20+ KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
PASSING APPROXIMATELY 105NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND BY 141400Z.
AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES
EASTWARD. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD, INCREASE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM TO 45KTS UP TO TAU 96 BEFORE STRONG VWS ONCE AGAIN
OFFSETS THE STRONG OUTFLOW, REDUCING IT TO 35KTS BY TAU 120. THERE
IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG VWS WILL BE OVERWHELMING AND
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 120.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE INHERENT ERRATIC STORM MOTION OF AN INTERMITTENTLY
EXPOSED LLC AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS
ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP
TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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