WDPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 
056//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.3N 169.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 145 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (GOES H-8 PROXY 
VIS) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH ITS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION SEVERELY
SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD, INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 35KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT 
OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR 
CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW GREATLY OFFSET BY STRONG 
SOUTHWESTERLY VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 140540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20+ KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
PASSING APPROXIMATELY 105NM NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND BY 141600Z.
AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES
EASTWARD. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASED OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD, INCREASE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM TO 40KTS BY TAU 96 BEFORE STRONG VWS ONCE AGAIN OFFSETS
THE STRONG OUTFLOW, REDUCING IT BACK TO 35KTS BY TAU 120. THERE IS
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG VWS WILL BE OVERWHELMING AND
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE INHERENT ERRATIC STORM MOTION OF AN EXPOSED LLC AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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