WDPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 
055//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.7N 170.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 204 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (GOES-H9 PROXY
VIS) SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) RAPIDLY TRACKING
WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST 3 
HOURS. THE SHEARED TOPS OBSERVABLE IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING (54) HAVE 
SINCE ENTIRELY DISSIPATED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SMALL, BRIEF 
CELLS OF FLARING CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED 30NM NORTH OF THE LLCC BUT 
ARE QUICKLY SHEARED OFF WITH THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW. MOST NOTABLY, THE LOW TO MID LEVELS APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING 
AND EXPANDING WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING VISIBLE UP TO 100NM FROM THE 
LLCC (AN INCREASE OF 33NM OVER 6 HOURS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXPOSED LLCC IN A 140000Z HM9 
VISIBLE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM 
MULTIPLE AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
OFFSET BY VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   PHFO: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 27 KTS AT 132350Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
PASSING APPROXIMATELY 95NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND BY
141600Z. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT PRESENTED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED VWS, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST AS
A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH TAU 72. A WEAK STEERING RIDGE OFFSET BY
EXCEPTIONAL MODEL CONGRUENCE CONTRIBUTED TO AN OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OF TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS THROUGH TAU 72,
FOLLOWED BY LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72. SINCE THE 132100Z WARNING
(54), INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 AND 
SLOWLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THEREAFTER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN