WDPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 
054//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.4N 171.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 354 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (GOES H-8 PROXY
VIS) SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) RAPIDLY TRACKING
WESTWARD, LEAVING BEHIND A COMPLETELY SHEARED OFF CIRRUS CANOPY TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. SMALL CELLS OF FLARING CONVECTION PERSIST 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BUT ARE QUICKLY SHEARED OFF WITH THE MID 
TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
IN A 131800Z HM9 INFRARED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND SUBJECTIVE 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RCTP. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW GREATLY OFFSET BY VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 
VWS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 131420Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK PASSING APPROXIMATELY 107NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND BY
141700Z. GIVEN THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT PRESENTED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL ERODE WITH LITTLE TO NO
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING OVER
WATER BEFORE TAU 96. A WEAK STEERING RIDGE OFFSET BY EXCEPTIONAL
MODEL CONGRUENCE CONTRIBUTED TO AN OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGEST CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 92NM AT TAU 48.  SINCE THE 131200Z 
WARNING (53), GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO INDICATE THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER DISSIPATION THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED, HENCE THE EXTENSION OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH TAU 96.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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