WDPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 
053//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.0N 172.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 362 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (GOES H-8 PROXY
VIS) SHOWS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH ITS CENTRAL
CONVECTION DECAPITATED AND SEVERELY SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
130915Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW GREATLY OFFSET BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 130830Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25+ KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST TRACK SHORTENED TO TAU 48 DUE
TO EARLY DISSIPATION. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK PASSING WAKE ISLAND APPROXIMATELY 147NM TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
141800Z. THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE INHERENT ERRATIC STORM MOTION OF AN EXPOSED LLC, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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