WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.1N 178.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 667 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH ITS NORTHERN FLANK GETTING
FRAYED AND SHEARED POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS IN THE COMMA HEAD 
SHAPED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON 
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE FINAL-T AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT 
REFLECTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE LOWER CORE. ANALYSIS INDICATES 
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   PHFO: T5.0 - 90 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK PASSING WAKE ISLAND APPROXIMATELY 215NM TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
141800Z. AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME WORSE WITH
INCREASING VWS AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE 
TROUGH WILL TEMPER THE WEAKENING DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120 WHEN IT 
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 218NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD,
THE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERRATICALLY,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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