WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.4N 179.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 735 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH ITS NORTHERN FLANK GETTING
FRAYED AND SHEARED POLEWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SLIT OF A REMNANT EYE THAT LINED UP WELL
WITH A RAGGED BUT DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 120419Z GPM IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT REFLECTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
LOWER CORE. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE-STRONG VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 120530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON DORA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK PASSING WAKE ISLAND APPROXIMATELY 197NM TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND TAU 60. AROUND TAU 72, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME WORSE
WITH INCREASING VWS AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30KTS BY
TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO JUST 216NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD,
THE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERRATICALLY,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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