WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05E (DORA) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.6N 180.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 609 NM WEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
DORA THE EXPLORER HAS DISCOVERED HER THIRD BASIN, CROSSING FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC, AND IS NOW KNOWN AS
TYPHOON 05E. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A VANISHING EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN
THE CENTER OF THE STORM. DORA'S INNER CORE REMAINS REMARKABLY
COMPACT, WITH AN 111846Z RCM-3 SAR PASS SHOWING A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ONLY 6 NM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET BASED ON A BLEND
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY
POLEWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST. SOME MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT
MAGNITUDE IS NOW IMPACTING THE STORM, AND THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS ACCORDINGLY BECOME ASYMMETRIC.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   PHFO: T5.5 - 102 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 05E (DORA) CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
THROUGH ITS DECAY PHASE, AS THE COMPACT INNER CORE IS VULNERABLE TO
EVEN MODERATE SHEAR, AND SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW
DISRUPTING THE CORE STRUCTURE. THIS SHEAR MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS DORA ROUNDS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO A CUT-OFF LOW,
PREVENTING SHEAR FROM BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO KILL DORA QUICKLY.
RATHER, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SHEAR AND DRY AIR PROGRESSIVELY ERODE DORA'S STRUCTURE. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DORA TO RESTRENGTHEN BRIEFLY IN 4-5 DAYS
IF THE UPPER LOW BACKS AWAY ENOUGH TO LOWER SHEAR VALUES FOR A
TIME, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF DORA IS LEFT AT THAT
MOMENT. FOR NOW, THE JTWC FORECAST SHOWS DECAY TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT-TERM DUE TO THE GENERALLY
WEAK REPRESENTATION THAT MOST MODELS HAVE OF DORA DUE TO ITS TINY
NATURE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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