WDPN31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 26.8N 142.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 536 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TYPHOON LAN FIGHTING OFF A FIERCE INCURSION OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE PAST EIGHT HOURS AND EMERGING STRONGER THAN EVER. THE EYEWALL HAS THICKENED AND RE-DEVELOPED NEAR PERFECT SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST FOUR HOURS AND IS NOW STRONGER THAN EVER. THE EYE HAS CONTRACTED TO 18NM AND CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS INTENSIFIED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALL THE WAY UP TO 115KTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH JTWC AND THE JMA. ADT AIDT DMINT AND DPRINT FROM CIMSS ARE UNAMIONOUS IN THEIR SUPPORT OF THE 115KT INTENSITY. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST MAY HAVE BEEN THE CAUSE OF THE SURGE AND THE BOOSTED EXHAUST IS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. THE TUTT CELL INITIATING THAT CHANNEL IS PASSING THROUGH THE SWEET SPOT TO THE DISTANT NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THAT LINKAGE SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE TUTT CELL DRIFTS TOO FAR AWAY. AT THIS POINT THE BENEFITS OF THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW IS EXCEEDING THE IMPEDIMENTS OF THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THE SAME DRY ENVIRONMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE STORM AND HONSHU BUT THANKS TO THE BOOSTED OUTFLOW AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION TY LAN HAS MANAGED TO COCOON ITSELF FROM THE WORST OF THE EFFECTS OF THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. TY 07W IS TRACKING THROUGH THE LAST MILES OF 30C SEA WATERS AND TOWARDS A LONG TRACK COVERED BY 28- 29 DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, HOWEVER, IS ALREADY LOW AND TRENDING LOWER. THE SYTEM HAS SLOWED MOVEMENT AND TURNED POLEWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT IS APPROACHING A STRONGER PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: THE RADII WERE SET WITH THE 101201Z ASCAT PASS AND THEN ADJUSTED IN THREE QUADRANTS USING A RECENT 102356Z ASCAT UHR PARTIAL IMAGE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 99 KTS AT 102330Z CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 102330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: FALLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU WILL BE MAJOR FACTORS IN CAPPING INTENSIFICATION AND BRINGING ABOUT THE GRADUAL DECLINE OF THE STORM. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 07W LAN IS PEAKING AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A STEADY BUT SLOW DECLINE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF JAPAN. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AND FORCE THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT NORTHERLY TRACK AND MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BEGINING NEAR TAU 24. DECLINING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT COUPLED WITH SLIGHT DECLINES IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL INITIATE THE DECLINE, AND EVENTUALLY THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WORK ON THE STORM TO AFFECT A GRADUAL DECLINE. STILL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE COAST ABOVE TYPHOON STRENGTH. AS THE KUROSHIO IS VERY NEAR THE COAST THIS TIME OF YEAR, THERE ARE ONLY A FEW MILES OF COLD WATER ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CURRENT TO WEAKEN THE STORM. 700-300MB MOISTURE PROGS DO SHOW THE SYSTEM CARRYING ITS MOISTURE CORE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. SOME DRY AIR WILL UNDOUBTEDLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CORE. GIVEN THE VERY WARM WATERS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF HONSHU IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AND REORGANIZE BEFORE GRADUALLY ROLLING OVER TOWARDS HOKKAIDO. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REASSURING IN ITS CONSISTENCY IN POINTING AT A LANDFALL WEST OF NAGOYA IN THE HAMMAMATSU-IZU HONTO REGION. THE CLOSEST DOD INSTALLATION TO THE STRIKE WILL BE THE USMC CAMP FUJI COMBAT ARMS TRAINING CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDFIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME VERY CLOSE TO THE MIURA PENINSULA, HOWEVER, AND GIVEN THE TIME AND DISTANCE TO IMPACT, THE CERTAINTY OF THAT COVERAGE IS LOW. THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PACKING OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE BETA EFFECT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE PEAK OF THE STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND A GRADUAL LINEAR DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH IS DOING WELL TO BALANCE THE FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE FACTORS OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MOISTURE AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN