WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (LAN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.0N 143.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 85 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT 
YET INTENSE TYPHOON STRENGTH CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE (33NM) EYE. 
OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, THE ONCE CLOUDY EYE IS NOW MOSTLY CLEAR, 
RESULTING IN WARMING EYE TEMPERATURES (10C TO 17C). A 100834Z SSMIS 
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A ROBUST EYE WALL HAS 
FORMED WITH NUMEROUS FEEDER BANDS OF CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS 
AROUND IT. A RECENT 101130Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS INDICATES A 
TIGHT AND MOSTLY SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE 
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, SSMIS AND SCATTEROMETERY DATA. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
AGENCY 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH MOSTLY SUPPORT 75KTS, WHILE THE BULK 
OF THE REMAINING AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SUSPICIOUSLY HIGH, 
IN MOST CASES HOVERING NORTH OF 100KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR)

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 101130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 07W (LAN) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
EAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, FUELED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VIGOROUS OUTFLOW ALOFT, 07W IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 95KTS. AS THE STR TO THE
EAST REORIENTS AND SHIFTS, TRACK SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES 30N. BY TAU 72, SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL CONSPIRE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT STEADIES UP ON A
COLLISION COURSE WITH MAINLAND JAPAN. BASED ON THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF THE SSTS AND SHEAR VALUES, 07W IS FORECAST
TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TYPHOON, PROCEEDING INLAND AND IMPACTING THE
ISLAND OF HONSHU AND YOKOSUKA AREAS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
MEMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND IMPACTING
JAPAN BY TAU 100 WESTWARD OF TOKYO. THERE IS A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF
CROSS TRACK SPREADING WITH TIME, THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS LAST CYCLE,
WITH THE BULK OF THE MEMBERS STILL CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INTENSIFYING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH LANDFALL. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ALSO PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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