WDPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 
058//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 37.4N 127.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 34 NM EAST OF YONGSAN AIN 
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AND DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES. SFC OBS FROM SEOUL REVEAL 13KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WHICH INDICATES THE LLCC IS SOMEWHERE EAST AND POSSIBLE SOUTH. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD
AND FRAGMENTED STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON RJTD AND RCTP DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T1.0 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
INTO NORTH KOREA IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE NEAR 24 AS IT PASSES ONCE AGAIN OVER WATER. 


MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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