WDPN32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 
057//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 36.4N 128.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 68 NM SOUTHEAST OF OSAN AB 
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ALMOST FULLY OBSCURED BY LINGERING DEEP CONVECTION. A
100407Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A FRAGMENTED
CIRCULATION WITH MINIMAL COHESION OR SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURES
EVIDENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI AND AMSR2 IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RJTD AND RCTD
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES GENERALLY MATCHING CIMSS D-PRINT OF
47KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: OVERLAND

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE KOREAN PENINSULA, IT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE NEAR 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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