WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 
056//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 34.8N 128.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 19 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH
KOREA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL STORM 06W (KHANUN) IS NOW FEET DRY JUST WEST OF CHINHAE.
ANIMATED MULTIPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND DEEP 
CONVECTION SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. SURPRISINGLY THERE 
ARE VERY FEW COUD TO GROUND LIGHTING REPORTS THUS FAR. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALL BUT CUT OFF BUT A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL STILL EXISTS. SKIES ARE CLEARING
TO THE WEST OF CHEJU DO AND SMALL CRAFT TO LOW GALE FORCE
NORTHWESTERLIES ARE SPREADING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. THE
INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO COMING ASHORE WAS ASSESSED AT 45KTS BASED
ON UNANIMOUS SUBJECTIVE DVORAKS FROM FOUR AGENCIES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SURFACE REPORTS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA AND KOREAN STRAIT.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN
HONSHU. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, OROGRAPHIC LIFT,
AND GENEROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUSTAIN TC 06W ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE DMZ. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRIEFLY TRACK BACK OVER WATER, NOT DISSIPATING COMPLETELY UNTIL IT
IS OVER THE CHINA NORTH KOREA BORDER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE
COPIOUS RAINFALL ALONG WITH FLOODING AND MUD HAZARDS ALONG ITS
TRACK.

MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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