WDPN31 PGTW 080300 AMD MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (LAN) WARNING NR 002 AMENDED.// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.6N 149.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 420 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING EVEN AS THE MAIN CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD OF AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, AND INCREASING VENTILATION ALOFT, ONLY TEMPERED BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK LOW-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 072340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 07W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD YOKOSUKA AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 75KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 370NM BY TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: AMENDED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KTS.// NNNN