WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING 
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.6N 149.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 420 NM EAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING EVEN AS THE MAIN CONVECTION
REMAINS SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD OF AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SLIGHT 6-HR IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, AND INCREASING VENTILATION ALOFT, 
ONLY TEMPERED BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK LOW-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 072340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 07W WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD YOKOSUKA AS THE STR RECEDES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. DECREASING VWS AND
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO
75KTS BY TAU 120.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 370NM BY TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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