WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 27.0N 124.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 174 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TY KHANUN HAS
BEGUN TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF ITS QUASI-STATIONARY STATE IN THE EAST
CHINA SEA AS THE BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST HAS ASSUMED STEERING. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
INHIBITED BY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST. CONVECTION
AROUND THE CORE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY CONTINUE
TO ERODE; HOWEVER, A DIMPLED EYE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CORE IS STILL
DISCERNIBLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE DIMPLED EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 032240Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END
OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY A 032129Z
SAR PASS THAT 63-67KT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR WEAKENING. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY CAUSED BY COOLING SST DUE TO UPWELLING BROUGHT
ON BY THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND BY THE DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL 
VENTILATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ANCHORED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 032330Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 67 KTS AT 032240Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 59 KTS AT 040000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 06W WILL SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
UNDER THE NER. AFTER TAU 48, A SECONDARY STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM POLEWARD TOWARD SHIKOKU,
JAPAN. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL AND CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55 KTS AT TAUS 24-48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL
INVIGORATE THE DYING CONVECTION AND PROMOTE MODEST INTENSIFICATION
TO 65KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT APPROACHES SHIKOKU.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 185NM BY TAU 313 WITH GFS ON THE
LEFT MARGIN AND NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE ALONG-TRACK STORM MOTION
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OUT OF ITS QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE, THERE IS ONLY 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID VERY CLOSE 
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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