WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.6N 124.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 183 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION WITH MAJOR DEGRADATION TO THE EYE AND EYEWALL AS 
WELL AS WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 031250Z EIR 
IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE EYEWALL ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE WITH THE EYEWALL REMAINING INTACT OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THE INNERMOST EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE ENTIRELY
DISSIPATED, LIKELY DUE TO DEEP OCEAN UPWELLING RESTRICTING
NECESSARY ENERGY TRANSFER INTO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
RAPID DETERIORATION OF THE CORE, WINDS HAVE PERSISTED AT 85KTS, AS
EVIDENCED BY GREATLY ALIGNED 030935Z SMAP AND 030939Z RCM-3 SAR 
IMAGES. ADDITIONALLY, THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS ON BOTH IMAGES HAS 
EXTENDED OUTWARD FROM ABOUT 10NM AT 030600Z TO 50NM AT 031200Z. A 
COMPLETE AND DETAILED ANALYSIS OF WIND RADII WAS CONDUCTED BASED ON 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SAR AND SMAP IMAGES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 031230Z HM9 WATER VAPOR AND IRBD
IMAGES AND A GMI 37GHZ HORIZONTAL MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 031040Z. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE SAR AND SMAP DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR AND SMAP DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR NORTH OF THE SYSTEM

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 113 KTS AT 031152Z
   CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 031300Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 78 KTS AT 031300Z
   D-MINT: 87 KTS AT 031036Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: DYNAMIC OCEAN COOLING

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON KHANUN (06W) HAS LIKELY BEGUN THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED EASTWARD MOTION, AND WILL CONTINUE AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, AT WHICH TIME THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY LEFT ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 120. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A REDUCTION IN MAXIMUM WINDS TO AROUND 60KTS BY TAU 36. ONCE
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER VALUES OF 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON ITS PROJECTED PATH OF TRAVEL, REINTENSIFICATION 
IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM TAU 48 THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM'S SIZE IS 
ALSO FORECAST TO EXPAND, WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN OUTLET ALOFT FOR 
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
STATIC SINCE THE 030600Z WARNING CYCLE. THE LONG-TERM LANDFALL
ENVELOPE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND SPANS FROM KYUSHU TO THE KII
PENINSULA. OF NOTE, THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE CLOSED TO THE 
JTWC CONSENSUS, SUPPORTING JTWC'S MEDIUM TRACK CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72
TO TAU 120.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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