WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.7N 124.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 188 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TYPHOON KHANUN HAS PERSISTED IN A DYNAMIC AND COMPETING ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND JAPANESE WEATHER RADAR SHOW A SMALL, ERODING EYEWALL
SURROUNDED BY AN IRREGULAR (12NM DIAMETER) EYE BECOMING LESS
DEFINED AND CLOUD FILLED. A LACK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAS INHIBITED AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER, THE 030505Z ATMS 165GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED INNER
EYEWALL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BECOME COOLER IN THE
AREA FROM UPWELLING OF COOLER SEA WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 030600Z HM9 IR-BD IMAGE
AND A 030610Z RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE, SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND OBJECTIVE CIMSS ADT AND DPRINT ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 113 KTS AT 031152Z
   CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 030530Z
   D-PRINT: 90 KTS AT 030800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) KHANUN (06W) WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT SHARPLY TURNS TO AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAINS THIS MOTION FROM TAU 12
THROUGH TAU 96. WHILE THE SYSTEM MAKES THIS ABRUPT TURN IT WILL
WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO THE UPWELLING COOL WATER AND COLD POOL AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TY 06W WILL ACCELERATE
WHILE MAINTAINING TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR POST TAU 72 AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSITS OVER UNCHURNED SEAS WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN DIVERGES WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 130NM
BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, GUIDANCE FURTHER DIVERGES LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE 0300000Z GEFS AND EPS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MODERATE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM KYUSHU TO
THE KII PENINSULA. THERE IS A MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS ON HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND THE STR OVER JAPAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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