WDPN32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 132.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 354 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM
THAT HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP FEEDER BANDS
FROM ALL QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN
EYE THAT HAS ENLARGED TO 27-NM. OUTFLOW, BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD ARE STRONG AND PROVIDING EFFICIENT VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL 
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, LOW VWS, AND
STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST, EAST OF JAPAN.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 302330Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 106 KTS AT 310100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY KHANUN WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD OKINAWA, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 66 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
ON 011700Z PRIOR TO DRIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA (ECS).
AFTER TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR, CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF
POHAI, WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND FORCE A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
STORM MOTION IN THE ECS. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 125KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, 
SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND BEHIND 
THE CURRENT STR WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN THE ECS, 
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST DUE TO UPWELLING INDUCED BY THE SYSTEM 
QS MOTION WILL MORE RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65 KTS BY TAU 
120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
BUT NOW WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SPREAD TO 310 NM BY TAU 72 WITH GFS
THE EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER DEVIATING FROM THE MODEL PACK AS
EARLY AS TAU 36. AFTER TAU 72, ALL MEMBERS INDICATE A SLOW
POLEWARD TRAJECTORY, ALBEIT IN A VERY WIDE SPREAD SPANNING OVER 500
NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST AND INTENSITY TRACKS UP TO TAU 72 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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